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Weekly Notebook - 10/24: Wrapup and Ratings

Posted Monday, October 26, 2009 by Perry King
XC Notebook and Ratings Overview for 1-C, Section, and Class C Teams

Good fun was enjoyed by all the runners at the super slop of a Section 1 Coaches meet on Saturday, October 24. How much the results of the race should be used to forecast the future is a bit debatable, but Coaches showed that a number of the 1-C runners are ready if the heavens open up on November 6 too for the Sectionals.

On the boys side, the frontrunning Pawling team decided to just run a mainly JV squad so their results are basically a void. Of the two teams that ran the race with something somewhat resembling a top 7, Irvington was way down at  144.5 average TR and Bronxville finished close behind the Bulldogs and not too far off their norm at 143.4 on a tough running day. Individually, because the three varsity races were rated on a sliding scale that gave the V3 runners a reward for running in the worst slop, the Eagles' Pat Wortner finished with the top mark at 176 in 1-C and also Westchester, followed by 2nd-place V2 finisher Julian Saliani of Irvington at 175, and then the sophomore duo of Dayton Flannery of Bronxville and Brendan Wortner of Dobbs at 174. All of those scores for the four were either a little above or right around their career best, so they got some reward for the mud trek. Cody Orton of Dover with the 6th best 1-C score of the day at 154 was the only other runner to improve on his norm, though the Broncos' John Flannery who was also at 154 equaled his best. All of the other Top 20 1-C runners were rated from 5 to 22 points under their norm if they ran. James Hertzel of Putnam Valley scored the 5th best results at 165, but it was still 5 under his norm. The Eagles' George Epstein was down 12.

On the girls side, all of the team averages were considerably down. Bronxville still ran well to a 2nd in the V1 race and their 101.4 was about 5 points under norm under raw conditions. Pawling was at 75.6 and about 14-18 points down, Irvington was at 53.4 and about 20 down, Hastings was at 48.8 and about 25 down, and Dobbs was about 16 off their norm at 45.6 running without Lauren Hanley. The Eagles have closed the gap on Hastings, so the County Meet could be a real breakthrough for them. The top 5 1-C runners all posted scores above 100, but a mud-covered Henrietta Miers of Bronxville was considerably down at 113, top 1-C runner Caitlin Jelinek was about 6 down at 121, and Irvington's Annie Field was a ways down at 102. Bronxville's Meredith Rizzo got the big jump of the day at 120, and the Eagles Sarah King was just above norm at 108. Most of the other top 1-C runners experienced drops of 8-35 points, but the Broncos rising tandem of 8th graders Courtney Campbell and Emilie Hoffer of course did well in the mud running a little above norm at 94 and 86.

The Tully Ratings basically gave most of the runners in the Coaches Race a moderate pass if they ran way under their usual, so the 1-C rankings on the season remain basically the same. At this point the TR scores shown here have eliminated any runner who have not run effectively during the last month or in their team's last three races. Some of these runners may return for the Sectionals, but it is not fair to count them in team ratings right now.

On the boys side, Pawling of course lucks out with not having the varsity run the Coaches and the Tigers remain further in the lead at a 159.2 average. Irvington slides back a ways to 150.0 and Bronxville in 3rd has moved closer to the Bulldogs at 146.6. The girls side sees more fluctuation as the Broncos actually increase their score a bit to 106.8 and with the removal of Pawling's previous #5 spot the Tigers are more than 20 points back at 84.0. Hastings' greater depth (outside of the 5 spot) earns it a 3rd place at 72.2 over Irvington, which falls back to 67.4. Dobbs running without Lauren Hanley at the Coaches remains in 5th at around 62.0.

Since most of the meets on Saturday were on the sloppy side, there is little movement in team places except for a few where it has become clear that they will probably not be getting runners back. The results jive pretty closely within a few places with NY\Milesplit rankings except in the case of Gowanda whose breakout performance at a meet on 10/17 looks to rate them much higher than the official rankings. Jordan Elbridge has a fairly large lead over everybody, but they will need to beat out 3rd place Holland Patent for the Section 3 title soon. The 6-11 places are so close as to be almost a wash.

The NYS Class C top 12 by the TR for boys is:  1. Jordan Elbridge (164.2), 2. Collegiate (161.4), 3. Holland Patent (160.8), 4. Christian Brothers Academy  (CBA) (159.4), 5. Pawling (159.2), 6. Tully (152.6). 7.  Fonda Fultonville (152.4), 8. Gowanda (151.4), 9. Sauquoit Valley (150.4), 10. Newark Valley (150.2), 11 Irvington (150.0), 12. Greece Odyssey (148.2)

On the girls side, Bronxville is again almost 10 points ahead of 2nd place Tully. The adjustment in Pawling's score has dropped them to 8th. Unfortunately for the girls, the evidence of injuries is beginning to show for some teams, thus the weekend's mud and the season's attrition has lowered a number of team scores. Although the TR averages are pretty much within a few places of  the NY/Milesplit rankings, there are a few huge differences. Even with the 5th and 6th best scores this season, Rhinebeck and Fredonia are not even ranked in the top 10 on NY/M. Tri-Valley's inflated rating and the fact that Saranac Central with a TR of 50.4 even makes the list are also strange.

The NYS Class C top 12 by the TR for girls is:  1. Bronxville (106.8), 2. Tully (97.4), 3. Newark Valley (91.6), 4. CBA (90.4), 5. Rhinebeck (88.0), 6. Fredonia (87.2), 7. Holland Patent (85.2), 8. Pawling (84.0), 9. Voorheesville (83.2), 10. Sauquoit Valley (75.8), 11. Chenango Forks (75.6), 12. Tri-Valley (75.6). Hastings appears to be around 15th at 72.2 and Irvington 18th at 67.4.

The 1-C runners look to be ready to do heavy damage at the Westchester County and Northern Counties meets on Halloween. The individual ratings are:


Top 20 1-C Boys (146+ Tully Ratings)

1. Brandon Freyer (P) .............185
2. Julian Saliani (I) ................. 175
3. Patrick Wortner (DF) ...........175
4. Dayton Flannery (B) ........... 172
5. Brendan Wortner (DF) ........ 172
6. James Hertzel (PV) ............ 169
7. Tim Yu (P) ....................... 160
8. Joey Moschitto (Bf) ............ 158
9. Matt Jorgensen (P) ............ 155
10. John Flannery (B) ............ 154
11. Cody Orton (Dv) .............. 154
12. Bob Swick (P) .................. 150
13. George Epstein DF) .......... 149
14. Sam Lindberg (I) ............. 148
15. Cory Woodin (Dv) ............ 148
16. Dennis Montaruli (I) .......... 148
17. Lucas Bucknavage (RN) .... 148
18. Charlie Fraoli (RN) ............ 147
19. Christian Guzman (NS) ...... 146
20. Pat Callan (P) ...................146


Top 20 1-C Girls ( 79+ Tully Ratings)

1. Caitlin Jelinek (P) ............ 126
2. Henrietta Miers (B) .......... 123
3. Meredith Rizzo (B) ........... 118
4. Sarah King (DF) .............. 108
5. Annie Field (I) ................ 106
6. Amelia Phillips (B) ............ 102
7. Zoe Nagasing (P) ............ 100
8. Argentina Chrappa (B) ...... 99
9. Libby Lazare (Pl) .............. 98
10. Nora Howe (H) ............... 98
11. Courtney Campbell (B) .... 92
12. Morgan Meaney (P) ........ 91
13. Emma Sander (H)  .......... 90
14. Danielle Kennedy (AM) .... 90
15. Emily Polstein (H) ........... 89
16. Sarah Costa (CH) ........... 88
17. Serina Saari (B) ............. 85
18. Emilie Hoffer (B) .............85
19. Lauren Wilt (H) ............. 84
20t. Kylie Van Buren (RN) ..... 79
20t. Katherine Marrone (B) .... 79

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