Weekly Notebook - 10/31: Wrapup and Ratings
Posted Tuesday, November 03, 2009 by Perry King
XC Notebook and Ratings Overview for 1-C and State Class C Teams
Section 1 runners are getting used to running in the mud and it is so long since they've seen dry land that they could be at a disadvantage if they are running on frozen quasi-Canadian tundra on November 14. The Westchester County Meet at Somers HS on October 31 had a number of sloggy parts causing havoc and extra fatigue, and the Rockland County Meet at Bear Mountain on October 29 and the Northern Counties Meet at Bowdoin Park on October 31 must have also had some bad spots.
There were no giant surprises at any of the meets. The six teams that were all at least slightly favored to win did take the titles in all the boys and girls varsity races, though the small favorite Fox Lane boys team needed their 6th guy to break a tie with Horace Greeley for the Westchester title. The Bronxville girls at Westchester, both Arlington squads at the Northern, and both North Rockland squads at the Rockland meets won comfortably, though the Broncos' margin was a mere 70 points. The individual titlists also went close to form since with the absence of the the top Pawling runners from the Northern County Meet, only pre-meet 2nd favorite Julian Saliani of Irvington at the Westchester was not top rated going in. Along with Saliani's winning performance, Nicki Nessi also won at Westchester, James McDonough of Mahopac and Hayley McMahon of Arlington triumphed at the Northern, and Nick Hughes of North Rockland and Megan Young of Nanuet were also champs. The only 1-C team besides the Bronxville girls to finish in the top quarter of teams at their meet was the Irvington boys, who finished 7th of 33 teams.
The general results for the 1-C runners under the circumstances were that the Tully Ratings were down, often way down, as only three boys and three girls actually increased their season rating in the final race before the Sectionals. Last year a dry Coaches Meet and a Westchester County Meet at Van Cortlandt Park resulted in fairly elevated TRs for the runners during the last two weekends, so this year the results make projections more murky.
At Westchester Saliani posted a career best 179 score to win the race. A spill brought Dobbs' Pat Wortner down early but he finished 7th at 171, not far off his average, while Brendan Wortner likewise was near his average at 169. Dayton Flannery of Bronxville was the 4th 1-C runner in with a 164, and his brother John was the only other 1-C runner in the 150s with a 150. The 1-C rankings stay pretty much the same for the boys though, as even top runners such as Briarcliff's Joey Moschitto who had very off days did not see their season TRs slip too much with the course conditions factored in.
On the Westchester girls side, Broncos Henrietta Miers in 3rd with a 121 TR and Meredith Rizzo in 5th with a 118 TR were at or near their season's average. The Eagles' Sarah King was one of only two 1-C girls at the meet to exceed their average as she hit a career-best 111, and Bronco 8th-grader Emilie Hoffer continued her pretty steady rise with a 5 point jump to 91. Other results over the 90 mark included Annie Field of Irvington at 103 and Amelia Phillips of Bronxville at 92.
Because two of the top three Pawling boys' runners and the top girls' runner did not run the Northern Counties Meet, results are not as complete as expected. The only other two top-20 runners besides Saliani to post scores above their season average were at the meet and were Cody Orton of Dover who posted a 156 and Bob Swick of Pawling who scored a 151. No other guy was above the 150 mark. On the girls side, Zoe Nagasing of Pawling posted a good 102 score to up her season's average.
The TR averages for the separate meets don't translate to much because of the conditions and because many 1-C teams did not finish 5 runners. As to the team season's average, Pawling continues to do well because many of their runners have sat out at least one of the last two meets. On the boys side, Pawling stays at around 159.0 to lead the 1-C teams, assuming that all missing runners are healthy. The other two main contenders have had their TRs fall back in the October muck to 148.6 for Irvington and 144.8 for Bronxville. Dobbs Ferry, Rye Neck, and Dover are all in the battle for 4th place.
On the girls side in 1-C, Bronxville slipped back a little but still has an average well above 100 at 105.4, and the lead over the other teams has grown. Neither Pawling nor Hastings finished 5 runners at the County meets. Pawling falls back to 83.0, and both Hastings and Irvington are at around 69. Dobbs is close behind in 5th.
On the State Class C level, there is little movement on the boys side with the exception of a huge jump by Section 9's James O'Neill into the 6th spot based on great results last weekend and a more solid #5 runner. Jordan-Elbridge stays just ahead of Collegiate for the #1 spot, but more importantly has only a 1.4 margin over Section 3 rival Holland-Patent in the upcoming showdown and trails HP at 3 of the 5 spots. The inactive Pawling actually moves up a spot, and Irvington is tied for 13th. TR ratings are fairly similar to NY\Milesplit rankings, with placements agreeing within 4 spots for the teams. Besides the all out scrap between five top-10 teams for the Section 3 battle, the TRs indicate that probably the only other close fights should be in Sections 4 and 9 among the stronger regions, with Chenango Valley (145.1) challenging Newark Valley in S4, and Rhinebeck (148.6) giving O'Neill a battle in S9. One can also obviously never be completely sure about Section 1 after the last two years.
The NYS Class C top 12 by the TR for boys is: 1. Jordan Elbridge (164.2), 2. Collegiate (163.2), 3. Holland Patent (162.8), 4. Pawling (159.0), 5. Christian Brothers Academy (CBA) (158.0), 6. James O'Neill (153.2), 7. Fonda Fultonville (152.0), 8. Tully (151.0). 9. Gowanda (150.6), 10. Sauquoit Valley (150.2), 11. Greece Odyssey (149.1), 12. Newark Valley (148.8)
On the girls side, Bronxville continues to hold a sizeable lead over 2nd place Tully at 8 points. There is little movement otherwise except for Sauquoit Valley's large drop which took them out of the top 12. Pawling remains in 8th and Hastings and Irvington are at around 16th. The NY \ Milesplit rankings are more difficult to understand after the first four teams, especially among the Section 9 teams where the TRs are clearly not being used for rating Rhinebeck and Tri-Valley, and apparently that section's Sullivan West team has been ceded to Section 1.
The NYS Class C top 12 by the TR for girls is: 1. Bronxville (105.4), 2. Tully (97.4), 3. CBA (90.6), 4. Newark Valley (90.2), 5. Fredonia (90.2), 6. Rhinebeck (88.2), 7. Holland Patent (84.2), 8. Pawling (83.0), 9. Voorheesville (82.0), 10. Chenango Forks (75.2), 11. Tri-Valley (73.4), 12. Gouveneur (73.0).
The 1-C runners get to lay it all out on the finish line at Bowdoin on Friday. The individual ratings going into the Sectional Meet are:
Top 20 1-C Boys (144+ Tully Ratings)
1. Brandon Freyer (P) .............185
2. Julian Saliani (I) ................. 179
3. Patrick Wortner (DF) ...........175
4. Brendan Wortner (DF) ........ 172
5. Dayton Flannery (B) ........... 171
6. James Hertzel (PV) ............ 165
7. Tim Yu (P) ....................... 158
8. Matt Jorgensen (P) ............ 155
9. Cody Orton (Dv) ................ 155
10. Joey Moschitto (Bf) .......... 154
11. John Flannery (B) ............ 153
12. Bob Swick (P) .................. 151
13. George Epstein DF) .......... 147
14. Sam Lindberg (I) ............. 146
15. Cory Woodin (Dv) ............ 146
16. Dennis Montaruli (I) .......... 146
17. Lucas Bucknavage (RN) .... 146
18. Charlie Fraoli (RN) ............ 145
19. Pat Callan (P) ...................145
20. Christian Guzman (NS) ...... 144
Top 20 1-C Girls ( 78+ Tully Ratings)
1. Caitlin Jelinek (P) ............ 126
2. Henrietta Miers (B) .......... 121
3. Meredith Rizzo (B) ........... 118
4. Sarah King (DF) .............. 110
5. Annie Field (I) ................ 104
6. Amelia Phillips (B) ............ 100
7. Zoe Nagasing (P) ............ 100
8. Libby Lazare (Pl) .............. 98
9. Argentina Chrappa (B) ...... 96
10. Nora Howe (H) ............... 94
11. Courtney Campbell (B) .... 91
12. Danielle Kennedy (AM) .... 89
13. Emilie Hoffer (B) .............88
14. Morgan Meaney (P) ........ 88
15. Emma Sander (H) .......... 87
16. Emily Polstein (H) ........... 85
17. Sarah Costa (CH) ........... 84
18. Serina Saari (B) ............. 83
19. Lauren Wilt (H) ............. 81
20. Kylie Van Buren (RN) ...... 78