State Championship Class C Preview
Posted Tuesday, November 10, 2009 by Perry King
Girls Contest Tightens Up and Boys Battle Centered on 2nd Place
The last few weeks have brought about a number of changes in the expectations for the State Class C races. On the boys side the predictions for team and individual winners are now centering after the past weekend much more strongly on Holland-Patent and on Chenango Valley's Max Straneva. The expected comfortable ride for the Bronxville girls has taken a bit of a detour into an unpredictable territory, but the individual title appears likely to go to a runner who finished 29th last year, Canastota's Allison Lasnicki. Section 1 looks likely to earn a 2nd in the sectional competition on the boys side, while the girls' race has turned into a tossup between Sections 1 and 3.
On a fairly flat course with predicted perfect weather at Plattsburgh for Saturday, the races should be super fast with almost all runners earning their best 5K times. As an example, in the Section VII Pre-State Invitational held at Plattsburgh on September 12th, Pat Wortner's current 175 TR equated to a 16:15 and Sarah King's 110 TR was a 19:30. The TR scale may be a little different for the States, but the times should be fast under ideal conditions.
There are some question marks for both some Section 1 teams and a few other of their main competitors, so a lot of surprises could be in the works. Bill Meylan on the Tully Runners site has predictions and breakdowns for all 10 of the boys/girls class races, and he has an excellent record of nailing the results. He picks Holland-Patent and Bronxville to win the C titles, but as he notes, the Broncos pick is contingent on the status of Henrietta Miers, and barring a benevolent act of a Westchester diety she is assumed to be out.
Boys Class C Race Outlook
Team and Sectional Contest
The TR breakdowns give a pretty good summary of the expectations for the 11 teams:
1. Holland Patent (164.8), 2. Pawling (157.8), 3. James O'Neill (154.2), 4. Gowanda (153.2), 5. Fonda-Fultonville (152.0), 6. Newark Valley (150.0), 7. Greece-Odyssey (149.6), 8. Babylon (137.2), 9. Oyster Bay (134.2), 10. Potsdam (132.6), 11. Plattsburgh (102.0)
Holland-Patent has a big advantage and should not be seriously challenged for the title this year after losing to Newark Valley by 1 point last year. The six following teams are grouped within 8 points of each other, however, and depending on how the team placements sort out, the contests could go many different ways. The Tully Runners predictions have it at Pawling well ahead of Fonda-Fultonville and James O'Neill, with Newark Valley and Gowanda in a dead heat for 5th and Greece Odyssey a little ways back in 7th. The problem is that Pawling did not look that strong in winning the Section 1 title with an average TR that was behind a surging O'Neill and pretty solid Fonda-Fultonville squad. Maybe the Tigers can turn it up for the States and take 2nd, but they will need a big effort to keep from falling to a possible 4th.
Section 1 has a strong group of runners and should take 2nd behind Section 3 and ahead of Sections 4 and 9.
Max Straneva won by 34 seconds last year, and barring a return to early season form by Pawling's Brandon Freyer, the reigning champ should win again by at least 20 seconds judging by his 187 TR. Freyer's 3rd place at the Section 1 race leaves his status as a top contender in doubt. Of last year's top finishers, only Julian Saliani of Irvington and Kendall Ward of James O'Neill are in the top 10 of the 2009 TR rankings. The #4 on the TR list, Jordan-Elbridge's Cody Stanton, did not qualify for the States out of a tough Section 3. The list of the top 20 TR runners who qualified for the States includes:
1. Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) 187, 2. Brandon Freyer (Pawling) 183, 3. Dylan Racha (Holland-Patent) 179. 4. Julian Saliani (Irvington) 179, 5. Cody Racha (Holland-Patent) 175, 6. Conor Cashin (Voorheesville) 176, 7. Mike Marrero (Jordan-Elbridge) 176, 8. Kendall Ward (James O'Neill) 175, 9. Pat Wortner (Dobbs Ferry) 175, 10. Ohure Sam (Tully) 174, 11. Calvin Davis (Skaneteales) 173, 12. Cliff Nielson (Gowanda) 172, 13. Tom Voorheis (CBA) 172, 14. Brendan Wortner (Dobbs Ferry) 171, 15. Aaron Walker (Canastota) 170, 16. Dayton Flannery (Bronxville) 169, 17. Aaron Heckman (Greece Odyssey) 169, 18. Brian Cashman (Chenango Valley) 169, 19. Nicholas Collazos (Southampton) 168, 20. Ryan Rosmarin (Friends Acad) 167
Section 1 team: Julian Saliani (Irvington), Patrick Wortner (Dobbs Ferry), Brendan Wortner (Dobbs Ferry), Dayton Flannery (Bronxville), James Hertzel (Putnam Valley); Pawling Championship Team: Brandon Freyer, Tim Yu, Matt Jorgensen, Bob Swick, Pat Callan, Dave Mayette, James Dennis
Girls Class C Race Outlook
Team and Sectional Contest
The TR breakdowns give a summary of the expectations for the 11 teams:
1. Bronxville (105.6) - (98.6 -H. Miers), 2. Tully (95.8) - (94.2 - J. Currie) 3. Fredonia (92.6), 4. Newark Valley (91.0), 5. Rhinebeck (87.8) - (85.6 - Anna Clark), 6. Voorheesville (82.2), 7. Gouverneur (75.6), 8. Saranac Lake (69.0), 9. Friends Academy (68.6), 10. Williamson (64.8), 11. Center Moriches (52.2)
This contest once looked like an easy victory for Bronxville, but without Henrietta Miers the battle with #2 Tully just became a lot more interesting. The Broncos will likely have no one older than a freshman in their top 6, so they will really be needing a lot of very young runners to step up to win the championship. Likely they will somehow do it, but both Tully and #3 Fredonia are solid teams with good to decent depth. Tully's #3 runner, Jessica Currie, did not run in the Section 3 finals. Rhinebeck at #5 was missing their #3 Anna Clark from the Section 9 finals. There are some question marks for a number of teams, and it would not be surprising if the Broncos repeat a 4 point margin from last year, when they beat Rhinebeck.
Looking at the TR placements for the Class C Championship the numbers do not look promising for the Broncos with Miers out. The Tulley Runners predictions based on thousands of simulations pick the Broncos at 55-70 over Tully with teams at full strength. Going strictly by the TR listed order for the team championship qualifiers, Bronxville has a 58-67 edge over Tully, with Fredonia at 99 and Newark Valley at 106. Without their top runner, the Broncos score shoots way up to 85, and even removing Currie from the Tully roster only sets the Section 3 champs back to 76. There are many different factors that will come into play in the race, but clearly the Broncos are going to need the same big performances they got in 2008 to hold on to their crown.
The battle for the Sectional crown is basically a dead heat with Section 1 sporting a 106.9 TR average with Miers but only a 103.4 without her. Section 3's top 10 have a 104.9 average including Jessica Currie and a 104.1 without her. How the placement sorting out will likely shape up is hard to determine at this point. With or without Miers, Section 1 has the most runners with 100+ ratings
Allison Lasnicki of Canastota appears to be far in front for the champion spot. Top 10 returnees from last year include Katie Brislin, Annabel Clarke, Samantha Watson, and Shannon Murphy.
The top 20 runners who are in a qualifying status for the States (though one at least may not run) includes:
1. Allison Lasnicki (Canastota) 138, 2. Kira Garry (Friends Acad) 129, 3. Caitlin Jelinek (Pawling) 127. 4. Aimi Beaudette (Canton) 122, 5. Henrietta Miers (Bronxville) 122, 6. Merdith Rizzo (Bronxville) 122, 7. Katie Brislin (CBA) 122, 8. Mallory Peterson (Millbrook) 120, 9. Annabel Clarke (Rhinebeck) 120, 10. Kaylee Rustay (JFK) 116, 11. Samantha Watson (Schuylerville) 116, 12. Shannon Murphy (Falconer) 114, 13. Leah Rice (Holland Patent) 113, 14. Sarah King (Dobbs Ferry) 110), 15. Sophie Goobic (Canton) 108, 16. Dierdre Dwyer (Spackenkill) 108, 17. Kimberly Geniti (Fonda Fultonville) 108, 18. Alissa Conti (Fredonia) 107, 19. Annie Field (Irvington) 104, 20. Emily Steves (Gowanda) 103
Section 1 team: Caitlin Jelinek (Pawling), Sarah King (Dobbs Ferry), Annie Field (Irvington), Libby Lazare (Pleasantville), Zoe Nagasing (Pawling; Bronxville Championship Team (7 of these 8): Henrietta Miers, Meredith Rizzo, Amelia Phillips, Courtney Chapman, Argentina Chrappa, Emilie Hoffer, Serina Saari, Katherine Marrone